Will anybody use Tesla’s robotaxis once they come to Austin? Most likely not

Tesla
is working furiously to hitch the robotaxi market, and to nobody’s shock, the preliminary launch venue is slated to be Austin, Texas — house to the corporate’s world HQ. Talks with the Metropolis of Austin have been underway for months, and the automaker is planning to deploy a small fleet of

Model Y
s by the tip of June or July, in accordance with CEO Elon Musk. Its Full Self-Driving (FSD) platform has additionally been mounting enhancements.

Here is the factor, although — whereas I am at present in Edmonton, I spent over a decade dwelling in Austin, full with a Texan spouse and baby to show it. Realizing the town, I’ve severe doubts about whether or not Tesla’s robotaxis will achieve any traction there, and never simply due to

FSD’s spotty track record
.

The unpopularity contest

Misjudging your viewers

Whereas it is sensible to launch in Austin from a logistical perspective, the truth is that Elon Musk is deeply unpopular with loads of locals, given his right-wing politics. Austin is a famously liberal metropolis, thanks partially to establishments like its music scene and the College of Texas at Austin. There is a notable LGBTQ+ district on 4th Road, and one in every of its best-known occasions is Eeyore’s Birthday, a free pageant stuffed with issues like drum circles and wild costumes. There are conservative Austinites — notably within the Republican-dominated Capitol constructing — however within the 2024 Presidential elections, over 68% of Travis County voted for Kamala Harris.

Many locals are employed by Tesla, to make sure, however even a few of them dislike their controversial boss. And the Tesla showroom in The Area has been the positioning of a number of protests attacking Musk’s affiliation with US President Donald Trump, to not point out different figures within the far-right.

I am anticipating loads of Austinites to not solely ignore a Tesla robotaxi service, however actively boycott it. Teams could increase the present protests, and there is even the chance of vandalism and sabotage, given different well-publicized incidents across the US. Till Musk is compelled out of Tesla — assuming that ever occurs — there is a distinct risk that the one clients utilizing his robotaxis shall be vacationers, Republicans, and apolitical sorts.

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Going through the competitors (and the town)

Penned in by Alphabet and MoPac

Waymo

Even when Austin had been as solidly Republican as Galveston, Tesla would nonetheless be going through one other main impediment: Waymo. Alphabet’s robotaxi service has been absolutely operational in Austin (by Uber) since March 2025, and was working in different cities previous to that. It isn’t solely firmly established in metropolis limits, however within the robotaxi trade basically, with a commanding lead over different US rivals like Zoox.

Tesla does have a bonus in that it has been in a position to check FSD in a variety of situations, because of a mixture of its personal knowledge and that from personal automotive house owners. It stays to be seen, nonetheless, if that can translate into the robotaxi world, a lot much less beat Waymo’s personal monitor file. Tesla has been conducting some advance testing on Austin streets, so it is at the very least conscious that it may’t hit the bottom working.

On high that, Austin itself is liable to be an impediment. There is a cause Waymo solely operates in a small space from Parker Lane within the south to Hyde Park within the north — getting anyplace else is difficult with out taking highways like MoPac (Loop 1), I35, and 183, and robotaxi companies typically keep away from highways in gentle of the dangers concerned. Tesla will most likely need to function beneath the identical situations, intensifying its competitors with Waymo and limiting what number of passengers it may appeal to. Large suburban areas like Spherical Rock and Pflugerville (each of which I’ve lived in) shall be out of attain, and main company workplaces belonging to Apple and Dell shall be inaccessible.

I am not even assured Tesla’s FSD tech will be capable to sort out Austin terrain (reliably). Having pushed these streets myself, I do know that there are many awkward intersections, by no means thoughts making an attempt to navigate them throughout building, rush hour, or the annual SXSW pageant that attracts in 1000’s of individuals and blocks off downtown. Austinites are already complaining about how Waymo autos carry out — I can solely think about the nightmare of a newcomer multiplying the variety of robotaxis on the street. All robotaxis are inclined to drive overly cautiously, typically impeding visitors, so there’s the potential for some severe visitors jams, notably figuring out that taxis from one firm do not have a approach of speaking with these from one other. A Waymo and a Mannequin Y stopped on a street like sixth or Congress would generate chaos.

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Is the scenario actually that dire?

Some last ideas

Tesla

Most likely not from Tesla’s perspective. It is planning to start out with simply 10 to twenty autos, and there is virtually actually a marketplace for that. It may encounter hassle scaling up, relying on public opinion and the progress of FSD, but I doubt Musk goes to surrender on testing one in every of his favourite tasks in his yard. The person is dedicated to self-driving autos of every kind, so I count on that nothing in need of a severe accident will drive him to take robotaxis off the streets. Even then, it’d simply be a short lived setback — Uber ultimately resumed autonomous testing after the death of Elaine Herzberg in March 2018.

There is also components I have never thought of. Perhaps some liberal Austinites shall be prepared to disregard Musk’s politics for the sake of a experience house from sixth Road — perhaps there are extra conservatives downtown than I am conscious of. In any occasion, we’ll discover out the reality very shortly, and that might decide how Tesla’s long-term autonomous plans go.

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